Market Monitor

By Marlin Clark

Corn and beans hold highs through harvest

In a move that defies the normal timing of prices, grain markets continue to hold at their highs as we finish harvest in this country. Soybeans made a new high on Thursday and Monday, and corn furutes traded back to a new high on Monday.     

What is going on? The harvest is huge, but the market still looks at demand being strong enough to handle the crop that has been downsized a little in two government reports. Combines roll toward the conclusion of the crop, but the rally cannot be said to be over.

This is the week we switch current bean marketing to the January futures, so the numbers seem higher, with a dime spread. January beans made a new contract high Thursday at 12.48-3/4. That was followed up by a move to 12.46-1/4, near the high, Monday. Currently we are trading up almost a nickel on the overnight, at 12.39-3/4. That makes cash prices most of a buck lower, but at historically high prices, and at harvest.

The corn futures spent the last three weeks trading above the report gap in a 15-20 cent range, but last week corn actually posted a new high in this market that I felt was mostly a soybean rally. December futures touched 5.90-3/4 on Monday, then traded down to close for the day at 5.77-1/4, down almost a nickel. Still a lot of volatility in this market! I remember the excitement the end of July when we broke the barrier into $4.00 corn. Then, the middle of September we broke into the $5.00 range. Now we are on the verge of $6.00, and we are still wrapping up harvest! I have now used up my weekly quota of exclamation points!

I have spent the last two weeks talking about an island top. That supposed island is now almost a month old, and is looking less like an island and more like just a continuation of the bull move. This is a big move and I have been anxious that we not be caught unsold. The higher it goes, the more I feel that way. In the meantime, every time a farmer sells me corn he feels remorse a few days later. The day will come when that is relief, as the market falls. Now, if I just knew when that day was.

Chicago soft red wheat futures have put in an uptrend as the beans and corn boomed. December futures have moved from a high of 7.39-3/4 on the 11^th to a low of 6.65 on the 22^nd to a high of 7.28 on Monday the first of November. There was not a lot of conviction at that high, however. The Monday close was back at 7.02-1/2.

Harvest of soybeans is virtually done in most of the country. There are still some around here, but they are going fast. The nation is at 96 percent harvested, up from 91 last week. This time last year we were only at 50 percent, but the average is 79. In Ohio we are at 95 percent, with 89 last week. We were at 81 last year at this time and have an 85 percent average.

The corn harvest is at 91 percent in Ohio and 91 also for the nation. Quite a change from last year when we were at 50 percent in the country, but 81 in Ohio.

Marlin Clark trades producer and elevator grain for Keystone Commodities from an office near Andover, Ohio. He welcomes your comments at 866-293-4433.