Market Monitor

By Marlin Clark

Fundamentals jerk markets around

Actual news instead of feelings and rumors is the influence on grain prices right now, and the effects are mixed.

Soybeans are using strong exports until recently to continue an uptrend in place since early February. Meanwhile, corn is weak on slow exports and fast planting.

It was no surprise to me that USDA reported fast corn planting Monday afternoon after the market close of trading. Friday night we drove to Findlay across 224 and the dust was flying everywhere. By the time we came home across the turnpike Sunday every furrow and depression was full of water, but a lot of acres were done.

So, Ohio corn planting coming in at 45 percent was expected, even though it was up from just six percent last week, and four percent last year at this time. Nineteen percent is the average. The trade expected 45 percent for the U.S., and had faded prices in anticipation. What they got was a whopping 50 percent for the country as a whole. That is up from 19 percent last week, and way ahead of the 22 percent five-year average.

Judging by the standing water, Ohio will not gain much this week, but we are still off to a start that makes for cheaper prices. We are switching our marketing to the July futures this week, so let's get started looking at them. The July corn had a low on April 1^st of 3.55. We rallied nearly 20 cents to 3.74-3/4 on the 16^th, but have now gone back to 3.56-1/4 on the Monday/Tuesday overnight session as this is being written. That was a quick pop, and all we are likely to get until the spring weather changes the mood of the market. All talk of a delayed spring is now gone, at least until we get two weeks of rain! The overnight trading confirms a little negativity from the planting report, with July corn futures down three cents to 3.56-1/2

The soybeans, meanwhile, have just had a one-day breather Monday in what has otherwise been a very positive market. The uptrend is firmly in place, although the market struggled Monday with the news that the export pace had slowed. USDA reported 8 million bushels of bean exports, and the needed pace is 8.4 million if we are to reach the projection of 1.445 billion bushels for the marketing year. Still, we are 16 percent above the needed export pace.

So, beans made a new recent high Monday, then closed 11 cents lower. Overnight we are down another 6 cents. That means we are now 17-1/2 cents below the Monday high on the July contract of 10.20, but the chart still is lovely compared to the corn.

The uptrend line for July soybeans is defined by the lows of 9.20 on February 4^th, 9.30 on March 15^th, and 9.39-1/4 on March 31^st. The 10.20 high means there has been a lot of volatility as we have gone higher. With the fast planting now slowed by rain, we are delaying any negative effect on the market of a fast planting pace for the soybeans. USDA is not yet reporting bean planting because it is historically early for that, but it should be noted that significant Ohio beans must be in. The current trend is for the well-equipped farmers to start them in April right along with corn. I have customers telling me they are more than started with the beans.

Chicago wheat futures had some noticeable excitement Monday, with a 31-1/4 cent range on one contract in five minutes. This is an example of a thinly traded market. We tested resistance near $5.00 on the May futures, then a sell order for 4000 contracts (20 million bushels) collapsed the market. May futures finished at 4.76, down 17-1/4 cents. The July is trading overnight at 4.87-3/4, down a quarter.

Marlin Clark trades producer and elevator grain for Keystone Commodities from an office near Andover, Ohio. He welcomes your comments at 866-293-4433.