Market Monitor by Marlin Clark

Grain markets erratic, but positive

Prices have been higher on the Chicago Board of Trade lately, but most days it has not seemed like that. We have had no steady gains, just bumpy trading.
Yesterday, Monday as this is written, was a good example. Prices were much stronger overnight, opened strong, then declined. We still had gains for the day, but the closing prices were disappointing.
Take the soybeans. March futures had a high of 10.41-1/2, but you would never have known it if you hadn’t seen the overnight. The day’s high was 10.40, and most of the trading was just above 10.00. We closed at 10.09, which was up almost a dime, but not up the 40 we once were. Overnight we eased of a penny or so,
March corn was also a disappointment, because we had an overnight high of 4.02-1/2, but did not quite get there on the open, and closed at under 3.94. Then, we lost four cents overnight.
March wheat futures finished the day up nearly a dime, and have held the gain overnight.
This is the kind of day that makes one think the top is in again. We have made good gains, after shrugging off bad news. Now, we have had a day when we ran away from the highs. And, the cynic in me says the top must be in because I spent all day yesterday taking targets that were tantalizingly above the highs are are not filled yet.
One sure sign of a top is when everyone thinks it will go higher.
Looking at the past six weeks is instructive. The lows were made in early December, then we had huge gains for a month. The January USDA reports stopped the gains, but we have spent the last two weeks trying to go higher. I remains to be seen if the current cycle is done, or if this is a glitch and we can challenge the highs seen around the 6th of January.

Marlin Clark trades producer and elevator grain for Keystone Commodities from an office near Andover, Ohio. He welcomes your comments at 866-293-4433.